Feb
27
Defense Wins Super Bowls
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Robert Ferringo asked:
I often say that football is a violent, brutal game. So, quite naturally, the team that is more violent and brutal will usually win. Only the strong survive, and this maxim has borne itself out time and time again from the bloody core of this beloved, gladiatorial sport.
The standard-bearer for gridiron ********* over the past quarter-century was the 1985-86 Chicago Bears. That team redefined what it meant to dominate with defense and forged a blueprint that has been followed by such recent organizations as Pittsburgh, New England, Tampa Bay and Baltimore.
In 1985 the Monsters of the Midway had the NFL’s top-rated defense in both scoring and yards allowed. They rode that classic unit to three postseason wins by a combined 91-10 score, including a 46-10 maiming of New England in Super Bowl XX.
In the 21 years since the 1985 season kicked off there has not been a single Super Bowl champion that finished the regular season ranked lower than ninth in scoring defense. Twelve of those 21 champions boasted a defense rated in the top three in points allowed, and No. 1 units were a flawless 6-0. Further, of the two Super Bowl combatants the team that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season is 18-3 straight up.
I mean, I haven’t uncovered some Rosetta Stone to NFL success here. If you give up less points, you win. Easy enough. I’m just pointing out what a fantastic indicator that one regular season stat has been at predicting the Super Bowl victor (85.7 percent).
Also, there have been only three teams in the past 21 seasons that had a defense ranked outside of the Top 10 in total yardage and went on to win the title. Those three exceptions – New England in 2001, Denver in 1998 and Washington in 1987 – each had scoring defenses ranked in the league’s top eight, subscribing to the bend-but-don’t-break school.
The average defensive ranking for the past 21 Super Bowl champions was fourth in points allowed and sixth in yards allowed.
All of this is pertinent because the difference between the Chicago Bears defense and the Indianapolis Colts defense is about as prominent as the difference between Maria Sharapova and Star Jones.
The Bears have overwhelmed foes this year and have had the best unit in the NFL over the past two seasons. This year they were ranked third in scoring (15.9 points per game) and sixth in total yards (295.1 per game). Conversely, the Colts D was a dismal 23rd in scoring (22.5 ppg) and 21st in yardage (332.2 ypg).
I will give Indianapolis defenders credit for playing better lately. But you can definitely count me among those who are not completely sold on their defensive Renaissance. They allowed 34 points to the Patriots last week at home. Before that they shut down a toothless Ravens unit and a bumbling Chiefs offense that didn’t adjust its scheme and couldn’t get out of its own way.
Indianapolis has the worst rushing defense in the history of the NFL playoffs, and the images of Jacksonville rushing for nearly 400 yards in one game and Ron Dayne actually looking like a legit NFL back are still fresh in my memory. In nine games outside of the RCA Dome this season the Colts have surrendered an average of 34 rushes and 187 yards (5.4 yards per carry).
Therefore, based on the fact that an Indy victory in the Super Bowl with that defense would be unprecedented, it’s kind of hard to justify them as a seven-point favorite.
So I’ll leave you with this thought: explain to me what the difference is between this year’s Colts-Bears “mismatch” and other seemingly one-sided match-ups like the Rams-Patriots in 2002, the Broncos-Packers in 1998, and the Bills-Giants in 1991?
In each of those instances the club with the sexy, high-powered offense was at least a touchdown favorite against a team that was more physical and violent at its core. I don’t think I need to tell you how those three games worked out. Let’s just say that the strong survived.
Chris
I often say that football is a violent, brutal game. So, quite naturally, the team that is more violent and brutal will usually win. Only the strong survive, and this maxim has borne itself out time and time again from the bloody core of this beloved, gladiatorial sport.
The standard-bearer for gridiron ********* over the past quarter-century was the 1985-86 Chicago Bears. That team redefined what it meant to dominate with defense and forged a blueprint that has been followed by such recent organizations as Pittsburgh, New England, Tampa Bay and Baltimore.
In 1985 the Monsters of the Midway had the NFL’s top-rated defense in both scoring and yards allowed. They rode that classic unit to three postseason wins by a combined 91-10 score, including a 46-10 maiming of New England in Super Bowl XX.
In the 21 years since the 1985 season kicked off there has not been a single Super Bowl champion that finished the regular season ranked lower than ninth in scoring defense. Twelve of those 21 champions boasted a defense rated in the top three in points allowed, and No. 1 units were a flawless 6-0. Further, of the two Super Bowl combatants the team that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season is 18-3 straight up.
I mean, I haven’t uncovered some Rosetta Stone to NFL success here. If you give up less points, you win. Easy enough. I’m just pointing out what a fantastic indicator that one regular season stat has been at predicting the Super Bowl victor (85.7 percent).
Also, there have been only three teams in the past 21 seasons that had a defense ranked outside of the Top 10 in total yardage and went on to win the title. Those three exceptions – New England in 2001, Denver in 1998 and Washington in 1987 – each had scoring defenses ranked in the league’s top eight, subscribing to the bend-but-don’t-break school.
The average defensive ranking for the past 21 Super Bowl champions was fourth in points allowed and sixth in yards allowed.
All of this is pertinent because the difference between the Chicago Bears defense and the Indianapolis Colts defense is about as prominent as the difference between Maria Sharapova and Star Jones.
The Bears have overwhelmed foes this year and have had the best unit in the NFL over the past two seasons. This year they were ranked third in scoring (15.9 points per game) and sixth in total yards (295.1 per game). Conversely, the Colts D was a dismal 23rd in scoring (22.5 ppg) and 21st in yardage (332.2 ypg).
I will give Indianapolis defenders credit for playing better lately. But you can definitely count me among those who are not completely sold on their defensive Renaissance. They allowed 34 points to the Patriots last week at home. Before that they shut down a toothless Ravens unit and a bumbling Chiefs offense that didn’t adjust its scheme and couldn’t get out of its own way.
Indianapolis has the worst rushing defense in the history of the NFL playoffs, and the images of Jacksonville rushing for nearly 400 yards in one game and Ron Dayne actually looking like a legit NFL back are still fresh in my memory. In nine games outside of the RCA Dome this season the Colts have surrendered an average of 34 rushes and 187 yards (5.4 yards per carry).
Therefore, based on the fact that an Indy victory in the Super Bowl with that defense would be unprecedented, it’s kind of hard to justify them as a seven-point favorite.
So I’ll leave you with this thought: explain to me what the difference is between this year’s Colts-Bears “mismatch” and other seemingly one-sided match-ups like the Rams-Patriots in 2002, the Broncos-Packers in 1998, and the Bills-Giants in 1991?
In each of those instances the club with the sexy, high-powered offense was at least a touchdown favorite against a team that was more physical and violent at its core. I don’t think I need to tell you how those three games worked out. Let’s just say that the strong survived.
Chris
Feb
26
Super Bowl Sunday Is The Biggest Unofficial Holiday
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Kadence Buchanan asked:
In the 40 years since the first Super Bowl was played between Green Bay and Kansas City, Super Bowl Sunday has grown into an unofficial national holiday that has shopping and economic effects rivaling Christmas, Thanksgiving and other major official holidays. Whether it’s a casual get together with a few friends or a lavish, catered party, 125 million Americans celebrated the Super Bowl in some fashion in 2006. Even those with little interest in football get in on the craze, if only to watch the commercials.
Understanding this unique opportunity, advertisers spare no expense to showcase their products and services during the Super Bowl. Advertisers paid up to $2.5 million dollars for each 30 seconds of advertising during Super Bowl XL in 2006. Agencies work on their advertisements all year, and the Super Bowl has become the unofficial Academy Awards of advertising. There are almost as many websites and television programs analyzing the advertisements as there are analyzing the game.
The food and beverage industry also profits from Super Bowl Sunday. Super Bowl Sunday is second only to Thanksgiving in the amount of food that Americans prepare and consume. In the weeks leading up to Super Bowl XL, Americans spent $55 million dollars on food for their Super Bowl parties and spent ten million hours preparing it. Since it is estimated that an average of 17 people attend each Super Bowl Party, these figures are not surprising.
The king of Super Bowl food is the avocado. More avocados are sold in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl that at any other time of the year. It is estimated that 12 million pounds of avocados are purchased and turned into guacamole for Super Bowl parties. Since guacamole requires chips, 15,000 tons of chips are consumed as well. All that food needs washing down and soda and beer sales also top out during the weeks preceding the big game.
It’s not just food and beverage manufacturers who profit. Millions of dollars are spent on party supplies like paper plates, cups and plastic cutlery. Electronics stores also benefit. After all, you need that big-screen TV in order to properly appreciate the game. Even sales of antacids spike on the Monday following Super Bowl Sunday. There’s a good reason for that. The estimated total time that party-goers take to consume all that carefully prepared food: 15 minutes.
Walter
In the 40 years since the first Super Bowl was played between Green Bay and Kansas City, Super Bowl Sunday has grown into an unofficial national holiday that has shopping and economic effects rivaling Christmas, Thanksgiving and other major official holidays. Whether it’s a casual get together with a few friends or a lavish, catered party, 125 million Americans celebrated the Super Bowl in some fashion in 2006. Even those with little interest in football get in on the craze, if only to watch the commercials.
Understanding this unique opportunity, advertisers spare no expense to showcase their products and services during the Super Bowl. Advertisers paid up to $2.5 million dollars for each 30 seconds of advertising during Super Bowl XL in 2006. Agencies work on their advertisements all year, and the Super Bowl has become the unofficial Academy Awards of advertising. There are almost as many websites and television programs analyzing the advertisements as there are analyzing the game.
The food and beverage industry also profits from Super Bowl Sunday. Super Bowl Sunday is second only to Thanksgiving in the amount of food that Americans prepare and consume. In the weeks leading up to Super Bowl XL, Americans spent $55 million dollars on food for their Super Bowl parties and spent ten million hours preparing it. Since it is estimated that an average of 17 people attend each Super Bowl Party, these figures are not surprising.
The king of Super Bowl food is the avocado. More avocados are sold in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl that at any other time of the year. It is estimated that 12 million pounds of avocados are purchased and turned into guacamole for Super Bowl parties. Since guacamole requires chips, 15,000 tons of chips are consumed as well. All that food needs washing down and soda and beer sales also top out during the weeks preceding the big game.
It’s not just food and beverage manufacturers who profit. Millions of dollars are spent on party supplies like paper plates, cups and plastic cutlery. Electronics stores also benefit. After all, you need that big-screen TV in order to properly appreciate the game. Even sales of antacids spike on the Monday following Super Bowl Sunday. There’s a good reason for that. The estimated total time that party-goers take to consume all that carefully prepared food: 15 minutes.
Walter
Feb
17
Tips for Betting the Super Bowl
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Robert Ferringo asked:
Manifest Destiny.
It’s the belief that the United States is destined to become the grandest and greatest empire in history. It’s the idea that we as a people are inherently Right and selected for greatness. And it is the manifestation of a principle at the core of our society: Bigger is Better.
Whether it’s our nuclear weapons program or a Big Mac, Americans lust for grandiosity. It’s a fundamental American ideal and can be found throughout our culture. But when it comes to sheer gluttony, self-importance and hyperbole there is no single event on the American calendar that can match Super Bowl Sunday, which will take place this year on Feb. 4 in Miami.
Don’t be fooled. Over budget commercials and avocado dip won’t be at the heart of this annual **** of Greed, Excess and Consumerism. The true soul of the event may be our desire for total world domination but the spirit of this Lord’s Day lies in the fervor and anxiety of millions of rabid gamblers across the nation.
“You will never get the NFL to publicly admit it, but the league would not be the most popular sport in the United States if it weren’t for the ability of people to wager on it,” said Ross Benjamin, a long-time professional handicapper. “The NFL realizes that the gambling that goes on is an integral part of the popularity and success of (the Super Bowl).”
To some the Super Bowl represents a fourth down Hail Mary pass; some weak-hearted last gasp attempt at Redemption and salvaging a season lost to bad luck and hubris. To others The Big Game represents a sort of pagan celebration of their good fortune and cunning throughout another long, bizarre NFL year. For them it’s the coronation of their inherent superiority and a chance to run up the score against the oddsmakers.
But regardless of your level of fear or desperation, the Super Bowl gives folks one last instance to press their luck in a very public duel with the Gambling Gods. It also symbolizes one final day to worship at the Altar of Speed and Savagery that is the NFL.
According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board the state’s licensed sportsbooks processed approximately $94.5 million in wagers on Super Bowl XL. Nielsen television ratings claim that last year’s contest drew around 90.7 million viewers in the United States alone. That averages out to nearly $10 bet per viewer. Also, estimates including offshore betting place the game’s total handle in the range of $1 billion. That only represents the sums of money gambled legally and the true scope of this event can’t be quantified.
So, since every heretic and lunatic that’s ever seen or heard of football is looking to lay a little green on the title game, how can seasoned gamblers find value in the lines? It’s a tricky situation, but I’ve done a bit of research and come up with a five-point plan for gambling success Super Bowl Sunday. There are no guarantees, except that if you follow this blueprint your odds of winning increase exponentially:
1) When betting the Super Bowl, understand the line.
“Most people don’t realize that we make most of our lines during the course of the year geared toward ‘wise guy’ or ‘professional’ bettors,” said Jay Kornegay, the former Executive Director of Racing and Sports for the now defunct Las Vegas Hilton. “The Super Bowl is the one line that is geared or made toward how the public or novice bettor views the game.”
During the regular season the goal for the books is to balance the action. Lines are posted not in an attempt to predict the actual outcome, but to prompt an equal or near equal amount of wagering on each side of any particular game. However, the public overwhelmingly bets the favorites in the Super Bowl. This makes it a kamikaze spot for the books: either the chalk covers and John Q. Public can afford that new flat panel television or the underdog covers and books can pour their winnings into hookers and blow.
In response to the square bettor’s infatuation with public favorites, the books shade the spreads even more than normal. The idea is to entice the sharps to back the dog at a premium price or through a key number. The result is that favorites since 1990 have gone 13-4 straight up but a modest 8-7-2 against the spread. Overall, the chalk is 26-14 SU but just 19-18-3 ATS in The Big Game.
Mob rule is the operative logic in any country as savage and ruthless as ours. Betting the Super Bowl is no different. The public is a drunken, lazy, brainwashed fool when it comes to football. What do you expect from a crew that gets its information from Chris Berman or Michael Irvin? So by falling in lock step with the public you could be unknowingly walking off a bridge.
Now, that doesn’t mean you can’t back the favorite. Last year I cleaned house with Pittsburgh as a four-point heavy over Seattle. I knew they were a better team and was able to get them at a favorable number. But while the 21-10 final may have appeared to be an easy cover, the Seahawks actually drove to the Pittsburgh 23-yard line with less than a minute left. If they had managed a garbage touchdown I would have pushed and all those poor souls who took the Steelers at -4.5 would have lost a heartbreaker.
If you are going to play a favorite you should go into the game with specific number in mind. If the opening spread is in that range you should hit it early and often because the longer you linger the most likely it is that it will move against you. Conversely, if you’re eying the underdog you want to wait while the money pours in on the chalk. There a good chance you can steal a precious extra half-point or point before kickoff.
2. Know your coaches.
If you had to bet your mortgage on an NFL game, which coach would you want leading your team?
“I always personally evaluate each head coach in respect to how well prepared they have had their teams in any big game situations they have been involved in,” Benjamin said. “Does the one extra week of preparation time favor one head coach over the other?
“It’s also very important as to how well disciplined each team is with all the distractions that go on in the two weeks leading up to the game. Discipline of a team is a direct reflection of the head coach. Discipline in this type of environment equals focus and attention to detail. These factors can’t be underestimated.”
Discipline in pro football can mean different things to different people. To you it could represent taking care of the ball and not committing crippling penalties. To me it means taking particular care to ensure that your players don’t end up drunk and babbling in the corner of some Mexican bar or that they don’t attempt to solicit *** from local law enforcement. That stuff has a way of disrupting a team’s karma, and you can usually get a read on it by scouring a coach’s history.
3. Are you experienced?
Experience is a cousin of discipline. And when the Hype Machine comes looking for victims I’ll always side with the guys who have been there before and are used to victory.
My own personal Big Game-Big Program Corollary states that if you have an organization or city making its first Big Game appearance - Seattle - and they are facing an organization or city that is used to titles - Pittsburgh - then you have to lend significant weight to the championship pedigree.
This may seem like another one of my wild and baseless theories born out of some horrid meth binge, but history actually supports it. First-time Super Bowl participants are just 7-19 in the game’s history. That includes a 1-6 mark by virgins since 1993. Conversely, teams making five or more appearances are a robust 9-3.
4. Know who’s playing, and know where they’re from.
I’m not talking about knowing a team’s mascots or where its tight end went to college. I’m talking about some solid, empirical analysis. You need to scour both teams’ schedule for common opponents or opponents that play a similar brand of football. You need to note how these teams have been playing lately and who seems to have the momentum going in. And finally, you need to note which conference each team played in and how that group did against their counterpart throughout the season.
Domination by a particular conference has been a cyclical and reoccurring theme throughout the history of the NFL championship. Initially, the AFC won 11 of the first 15 Super Bowls tilts, followed by an obscene 15-1 run by the NFC. In those 15 games the NFC averaged a 16.5-point margin of victory.
However, the pendulum has swung back toward the AFC in recent years. They are 7-2 straight up and 5-3-1 ATS since Green Bay was beaten by Denver in 1998. What this tells me is that the NFC has two or three humiliating losses left in it before regaining its perch atop the NFL totem pole.
Conference totalitarianism seems to be a direct contradiction to what has become the crux of the league’s stability and popularity - parity. The historical data doesn’t lie, but recent statistics actually indicate that the disparity in the championship game is shrinking. Between 1987-1996 the average margin of victory in the championship game was a coma-inducing 19.4 points. But from 1997 to 2006 that margin slimmed to 10.7 points. Further, three of the past five games were decided by a field goal, with four underdogs covering and two winning outright.
5. Defense wins championships.
Everyone knows this - it’s Gambling 101 - but it’s worth repeating. Since 1990, defensive units ranked in the top three overall during the regular season are a perfect 9-0 in the Super Bowl. Five of those nine victories were by a top-ranked unit, who were a pristine 5-0. Teams boasting the league’s No. 1 offense went 6-3 in the championship game, but not of the half dozen victors had a defense ranked lower than No. 6 during the year.
Over the past six years we’ve seen a dominating defense take the title and finish in the money. Pittsburgh (2006), New England (2005, 2004, 2002), Tampa Bay (2003) and Baltimore (2001) were all rough and rugged units that featured whiplash-wielding, concussion-causing, bone-breaking defense. The result was that they went a combined 4-2 ATS.
Keep all of these suggestions in mind when you are betting the Super Bowl and remember: go for it all. It’s what being an American is all about.
Carpe diem, my friend. And good luck.
John
Manifest Destiny.
It’s the belief that the United States is destined to become the grandest and greatest empire in history. It’s the idea that we as a people are inherently Right and selected for greatness. And it is the manifestation of a principle at the core of our society: Bigger is Better.
Whether it’s our nuclear weapons program or a Big Mac, Americans lust for grandiosity. It’s a fundamental American ideal and can be found throughout our culture. But when it comes to sheer gluttony, self-importance and hyperbole there is no single event on the American calendar that can match Super Bowl Sunday, which will take place this year on Feb. 4 in Miami.
Don’t be fooled. Over budget commercials and avocado dip won’t be at the heart of this annual **** of Greed, Excess and Consumerism. The true soul of the event may be our desire for total world domination but the spirit of this Lord’s Day lies in the fervor and anxiety of millions of rabid gamblers across the nation.
“You will never get the NFL to publicly admit it, but the league would not be the most popular sport in the United States if it weren’t for the ability of people to wager on it,” said Ross Benjamin, a long-time professional handicapper. “The NFL realizes that the gambling that goes on is an integral part of the popularity and success of (the Super Bowl).”
To some the Super Bowl represents a fourth down Hail Mary pass; some weak-hearted last gasp attempt at Redemption and salvaging a season lost to bad luck and hubris. To others The Big Game represents a sort of pagan celebration of their good fortune and cunning throughout another long, bizarre NFL year. For them it’s the coronation of their inherent superiority and a chance to run up the score against the oddsmakers.
But regardless of your level of fear or desperation, the Super Bowl gives folks one last instance to press their luck in a very public duel with the Gambling Gods. It also symbolizes one final day to worship at the Altar of Speed and Savagery that is the NFL.
According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board the state’s licensed sportsbooks processed approximately $94.5 million in wagers on Super Bowl XL. Nielsen television ratings claim that last year’s contest drew around 90.7 million viewers in the United States alone. That averages out to nearly $10 bet per viewer. Also, estimates including offshore betting place the game’s total handle in the range of $1 billion. That only represents the sums of money gambled legally and the true scope of this event can’t be quantified.
So, since every heretic and lunatic that’s ever seen or heard of football is looking to lay a little green on the title game, how can seasoned gamblers find value in the lines? It’s a tricky situation, but I’ve done a bit of research and come up with a five-point plan for gambling success Super Bowl Sunday. There are no guarantees, except that if you follow this blueprint your odds of winning increase exponentially:
1) When betting the Super Bowl, understand the line.
“Most people don’t realize that we make most of our lines during the course of the year geared toward ‘wise guy’ or ‘professional’ bettors,” said Jay Kornegay, the former Executive Director of Racing and Sports for the now defunct Las Vegas Hilton. “The Super Bowl is the one line that is geared or made toward how the public or novice bettor views the game.”
During the regular season the goal for the books is to balance the action. Lines are posted not in an attempt to predict the actual outcome, but to prompt an equal or near equal amount of wagering on each side of any particular game. However, the public overwhelmingly bets the favorites in the Super Bowl. This makes it a kamikaze spot for the books: either the chalk covers and John Q. Public can afford that new flat panel television or the underdog covers and books can pour their winnings into hookers and blow.
In response to the square bettor’s infatuation with public favorites, the books shade the spreads even more than normal. The idea is to entice the sharps to back the dog at a premium price or through a key number. The result is that favorites since 1990 have gone 13-4 straight up but a modest 8-7-2 against the spread. Overall, the chalk is 26-14 SU but just 19-18-3 ATS in The Big Game.
Mob rule is the operative logic in any country as savage and ruthless as ours. Betting the Super Bowl is no different. The public is a drunken, lazy, brainwashed fool when it comes to football. What do you expect from a crew that gets its information from Chris Berman or Michael Irvin? So by falling in lock step with the public you could be unknowingly walking off a bridge.
Now, that doesn’t mean you can’t back the favorite. Last year I cleaned house with Pittsburgh as a four-point heavy over Seattle. I knew they were a better team and was able to get them at a favorable number. But while the 21-10 final may have appeared to be an easy cover, the Seahawks actually drove to the Pittsburgh 23-yard line with less than a minute left. If they had managed a garbage touchdown I would have pushed and all those poor souls who took the Steelers at -4.5 would have lost a heartbreaker.
If you are going to play a favorite you should go into the game with specific number in mind. If the opening spread is in that range you should hit it early and often because the longer you linger the most likely it is that it will move against you. Conversely, if you’re eying the underdog you want to wait while the money pours in on the chalk. There a good chance you can steal a precious extra half-point or point before kickoff.
2. Know your coaches.
If you had to bet your mortgage on an NFL game, which coach would you want leading your team?
“I always personally evaluate each head coach in respect to how well prepared they have had their teams in any big game situations they have been involved in,” Benjamin said. “Does the one extra week of preparation time favor one head coach over the other?
“It’s also very important as to how well disciplined each team is with all the distractions that go on in the two weeks leading up to the game. Discipline of a team is a direct reflection of the head coach. Discipline in this type of environment equals focus and attention to detail. These factors can’t be underestimated.”
Discipline in pro football can mean different things to different people. To you it could represent taking care of the ball and not committing crippling penalties. To me it means taking particular care to ensure that your players don’t end up drunk and babbling in the corner of some Mexican bar or that they don’t attempt to solicit *** from local law enforcement. That stuff has a way of disrupting a team’s karma, and you can usually get a read on it by scouring a coach’s history.
3. Are you experienced?
Experience is a cousin of discipline. And when the Hype Machine comes looking for victims I’ll always side with the guys who have been there before and are used to victory.
My own personal Big Game-Big Program Corollary states that if you have an organization or city making its first Big Game appearance - Seattle - and they are facing an organization or city that is used to titles - Pittsburgh - then you have to lend significant weight to the championship pedigree.
This may seem like another one of my wild and baseless theories born out of some horrid meth binge, but history actually supports it. First-time Super Bowl participants are just 7-19 in the game’s history. That includes a 1-6 mark by virgins since 1993. Conversely, teams making five or more appearances are a robust 9-3.
4. Know who’s playing, and know where they’re from.
I’m not talking about knowing a team’s mascots or where its tight end went to college. I’m talking about some solid, empirical analysis. You need to scour both teams’ schedule for common opponents or opponents that play a similar brand of football. You need to note how these teams have been playing lately and who seems to have the momentum going in. And finally, you need to note which conference each team played in and how that group did against their counterpart throughout the season.
Domination by a particular conference has been a cyclical and reoccurring theme throughout the history of the NFL championship. Initially, the AFC won 11 of the first 15 Super Bowls tilts, followed by an obscene 15-1 run by the NFC. In those 15 games the NFC averaged a 16.5-point margin of victory.
However, the pendulum has swung back toward the AFC in recent years. They are 7-2 straight up and 5-3-1 ATS since Green Bay was beaten by Denver in 1998. What this tells me is that the NFC has two or three humiliating losses left in it before regaining its perch atop the NFL totem pole.
Conference totalitarianism seems to be a direct contradiction to what has become the crux of the league’s stability and popularity - parity. The historical data doesn’t lie, but recent statistics actually indicate that the disparity in the championship game is shrinking. Between 1987-1996 the average margin of victory in the championship game was a coma-inducing 19.4 points. But from 1997 to 2006 that margin slimmed to 10.7 points. Further, three of the past five games were decided by a field goal, with four underdogs covering and two winning outright.
5. Defense wins championships.
Everyone knows this - it’s Gambling 101 - but it’s worth repeating. Since 1990, defensive units ranked in the top three overall during the regular season are a perfect 9-0 in the Super Bowl. Five of those nine victories were by a top-ranked unit, who were a pristine 5-0. Teams boasting the league’s No. 1 offense went 6-3 in the championship game, but not of the half dozen victors had a defense ranked lower than No. 6 during the year.
Over the past six years we’ve seen a dominating defense take the title and finish in the money. Pittsburgh (2006), New England (2005, 2004, 2002), Tampa Bay (2003) and Baltimore (2001) were all rough and rugged units that featured whiplash-wielding, concussion-causing, bone-breaking defense. The result was that they went a combined 4-2 ATS.
Keep all of these suggestions in mind when you are betting the Super Bowl and remember: go for it all. It’s what being an American is all about.
Carpe diem, my friend. And good luck.
John
Feb
6
Super Bowl to Super Tuesday
Filed Under The Super Bowl | Comments Off
Ernie Fitzpatrick asked:
Some call the Sunday’s Super Bowl the upset of the century. The 18-0 Patriots were taken down by the Giant killers ftrom New Yorm. Long live Eli Manning. So, will Sunday’s results be a percursor to Tuesday’s outcome as well? But, will the giant killer be from Illinois and not New York? Will Super Tuesday have the same results of the Super Bowl with the underdog coming out on top?
Two months ago, even one month ago, no one expected Barack Obama to have much of a chance. After all he was the black junior Senator from Illinois and he was challenging the ultimate political machine owned and built by Bill and Hillary. Who could take down the giant?
Hillary had been chosen by Terry McAuliffe and other party officials to be crowned Queen of American politics and give Bubba the opportunity to travel around the world in first class conditions making deals like no one has ever seen. And of course, having fun along the way while Hillary keeps her White House schedule.
Do we really want four years of this?
Like the Patriots, up until Sunday, Hillary has been perfect in her quest for the White House. The decision to stay in New York, run for Senator, build on the 1992-2000 Democratic base, make deals, garner favors, put political operatives in the right places, touch the right money people, and say anything to get elected. Everything had been perfect until recently. Now, there are visible cracks in the machinery.
Do we want four more years of various Hillary-Gates?
Super Tuesday will give us all a clue as to how much water her ship is taking on. Will it stay afloat or will Super Tuesday start sinking the Clinton legacy? We don’t have to wait long to know. But, we will have to wait until after Super Tuesday, because the clock doesn’t stop there.
Veronica
Some call the Sunday’s Super Bowl the upset of the century. The 18-0 Patriots were taken down by the Giant killers ftrom New Yorm. Long live Eli Manning. So, will Sunday’s results be a percursor to Tuesday’s outcome as well? But, will the giant killer be from Illinois and not New York? Will Super Tuesday have the same results of the Super Bowl with the underdog coming out on top?
Two months ago, even one month ago, no one expected Barack Obama to have much of a chance. After all he was the black junior Senator from Illinois and he was challenging the ultimate political machine owned and built by Bill and Hillary. Who could take down the giant?
Hillary had been chosen by Terry McAuliffe and other party officials to be crowned Queen of American politics and give Bubba the opportunity to travel around the world in first class conditions making deals like no one has ever seen. And of course, having fun along the way while Hillary keeps her White House schedule.
Do we really want four years of this?
Like the Patriots, up until Sunday, Hillary has been perfect in her quest for the White House. The decision to stay in New York, run for Senator, build on the 1992-2000 Democratic base, make deals, garner favors, put political operatives in the right places, touch the right money people, and say anything to get elected. Everything had been perfect until recently. Now, there are visible cracks in the machinery.
Do we want four more years of various Hillary-Gates?
Super Tuesday will give us all a clue as to how much water her ship is taking on. Will it stay afloat or will Super Tuesday start sinking the Clinton legacy? We don’t have to wait long to know. But, we will have to wait until after Super Tuesday, because the clock doesn’t stop there.
Veronica
Feb
1
Entertaining Moments of the Super Bowl
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Bill Pratt asked:
The entire of the Super Bowl is not just focused on purely football. Of course, there are the halftime shows, which have been quite great attractions as well, with all the popular musical acts and artists performing.
During the earlier days of the Super Bowl, the halftime shows that were features just consisted of some marching bands of the local high schools or colleges. However, as the popularity of the Super Bowl increased through the years, the potential of exposure has also increased. Because of this, popular singers and other musicians came to perform at pre-game ceremonies and halftime shows. Sometimes, they would just sing the U.S. National Anthem, which is the Star-Spangled Banner.
At the Super Bowl XL, there were a couple of outstanding performances. Stevie Wonder, John Legend and Joss Stone performed at the pre-game ceremony. Aaron Neville, Dr. John and Aretha Franklin sang the Star-Spangled Banner. And at the halftime show, the Rolling Stones gave an unforgettable performance.
Also a memorable performance was the performance of U2 in 2002. It was a special tribute to the 9/11 victims so as the band sang their second song, the names of the victims were scrolled on a large projection screen.
Another controversial halftime show was at the Super Bowl XXXVIII. Justin Timberlake accidentally removed a piece of what Janet Jackson was wearing, which exposed her right ****** and showed her star shaped ring. They repeated that it was just a “wardrobe malfunction”. That particular game was aired live on CBS and the halftime show was produced by MTV, which was a sister company of CBS under Viacom.
After that, pictures and videos of the incident quickly circulated online. Due to the incident, NFL prohibited MTV from producing another halftime show. The FCC also tightened their control regarding indecency and fined CBS for $225,000, including the other stations that were owned and operated by CBS. The following year, however, the halftime show was totally uncontroversial, as Paul McCartney performed.
Melinda
The entire of the Super Bowl is not just focused on purely football. Of course, there are the halftime shows, which have been quite great attractions as well, with all the popular musical acts and artists performing.
During the earlier days of the Super Bowl, the halftime shows that were features just consisted of some marching bands of the local high schools or colleges. However, as the popularity of the Super Bowl increased through the years, the potential of exposure has also increased. Because of this, popular singers and other musicians came to perform at pre-game ceremonies and halftime shows. Sometimes, they would just sing the U.S. National Anthem, which is the Star-Spangled Banner.
At the Super Bowl XL, there were a couple of outstanding performances. Stevie Wonder, John Legend and Joss Stone performed at the pre-game ceremony. Aaron Neville, Dr. John and Aretha Franklin sang the Star-Spangled Banner. And at the halftime show, the Rolling Stones gave an unforgettable performance.
Also a memorable performance was the performance of U2 in 2002. It was a special tribute to the 9/11 victims so as the band sang their second song, the names of the victims were scrolled on a large projection screen.
Another controversial halftime show was at the Super Bowl XXXVIII. Justin Timberlake accidentally removed a piece of what Janet Jackson was wearing, which exposed her right ****** and showed her star shaped ring. They repeated that it was just a “wardrobe malfunction”. That particular game was aired live on CBS and the halftime show was produced by MTV, which was a sister company of CBS under Viacom.
After that, pictures and videos of the incident quickly circulated online. Due to the incident, NFL prohibited MTV from producing another halftime show. The FCC also tightened their control regarding indecency and fined CBS for $225,000, including the other stations that were owned and operated by CBS. The following year, however, the halftime show was totally uncontroversial, as Paul McCartney performed.
Melinda
Jan
17
Raiders in the Super Bowl
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Bishara asked:
As we travel back in time to 2002, we see that the raiders took care of themselves and played strong as the Raiders made their way to the super bowl. Their first Super Bowl in 19 years.
At Super Bowl XXXVII, the Raiders would play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coached by Jon Gruden. Gruden who coached ten Raiders from 1998-2001 had rebuilt the team into a scoring machine that his replacement Bill Callahan helped form into the top offense in the NFL who, were matched up against Gruden’s Buccaneers who had the top defense in the NFL.
The Raiders were stressed because of this. It was like a day at the circus. Barret Robbins who went AWOLE the day before the big game in San Diego. Robbins would reappear the morning of the game after a night of drinking in Tijuana, but he would be suspended from the team. At the start of the game it appeared as if the Robbins disruption would not hurt as the Raiders, who took advantage of an interception on the first possession of the game to take an early 3-0 lead. The Bucs defense seemed to know what was coming as they red Rich Gannon perfectly intercepting 2 passes and shutting down the Raiders offense completely to take a 20-3 lead into halftime.
Things would not get better for the Raiders in the second half as the Bucs extended their lead to 27-3 on a long drive that ate up time in the 3rd Quarter. Now in desperation Dwight Smith who returned it all the way to extend their lead to 34-3 would pick off mode Gannon trying desperately to get the Raiders back into the game. The Raiders would make a strong attempt at comeback scoring three consecutive Touchdowns, to cut the lead to 34-21. However, in the final 2 minutes Gannon would have another two interceptions ran back for touchdowns as the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl 48-21.
In 2003, the riders did not do too well. They carried a losing streak in a lost season as the Raiders finished with a terrible 4-12 record, the worst season ever for any team coming off a Super Bowl Appearance. The dreadful that the Raiders finish tied for the worst record in the NFL Coach Bill Callahan is given the boot and replace by Nor Turner.
In 2004, the Raiders would still have problems even with a new coach finishing in last place with a 5-11 record.
Now 2005, the Raiders added Randy Moss which caused them to have one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. However, the offense does not win Championships, as the Raiders defense still needs a lot of help. Expect the Raiders to be lacking consistency as they wind up finishing .500.
Darryl
As we travel back in time to 2002, we see that the raiders took care of themselves and played strong as the Raiders made their way to the super bowl. Their first Super Bowl in 19 years.
At Super Bowl XXXVII, the Raiders would play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coached by Jon Gruden. Gruden who coached ten Raiders from 1998-2001 had rebuilt the team into a scoring machine that his replacement Bill Callahan helped form into the top offense in the NFL who, were matched up against Gruden’s Buccaneers who had the top defense in the NFL.
The Raiders were stressed because of this. It was like a day at the circus. Barret Robbins who went AWOLE the day before the big game in San Diego. Robbins would reappear the morning of the game after a night of drinking in Tijuana, but he would be suspended from the team. At the start of the game it appeared as if the Robbins disruption would not hurt as the Raiders, who took advantage of an interception on the first possession of the game to take an early 3-0 lead. The Bucs defense seemed to know what was coming as they red Rich Gannon perfectly intercepting 2 passes and shutting down the Raiders offense completely to take a 20-3 lead into halftime.
Things would not get better for the Raiders in the second half as the Bucs extended their lead to 27-3 on a long drive that ate up time in the 3rd Quarter. Now in desperation Dwight Smith who returned it all the way to extend their lead to 34-3 would pick off mode Gannon trying desperately to get the Raiders back into the game. The Raiders would make a strong attempt at comeback scoring three consecutive Touchdowns, to cut the lead to 34-21. However, in the final 2 minutes Gannon would have another two interceptions ran back for touchdowns as the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl 48-21.
In 2003, the riders did not do too well. They carried a losing streak in a lost season as the Raiders finished with a terrible 4-12 record, the worst season ever for any team coming off a Super Bowl Appearance. The dreadful that the Raiders finish tied for the worst record in the NFL Coach Bill Callahan is given the boot and replace by Nor Turner.
In 2004, the Raiders would still have problems even with a new coach finishing in last place with a 5-11 record.
Now 2005, the Raiders added Randy Moss which caused them to have one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. However, the offense does not win Championships, as the Raiders defense still needs a lot of help. Expect the Raiders to be lacking consistency as they wind up finishing .500.
Darryl
Jan
4
Super Bowl Xli Trivia: Chicago Bears Vs. Indianapolis Colts
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Ryan Wiseman asked:
Below are some fascinating facts about Super Bowl XLI, the greatest spectacle in American sports, which will take place at Dolphin Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Sunday, February 4, 2007, and feature the National Football Conference (NFC) champion Chicago Bears vs. the American Football Conference (AFC) champion Indianapolis Colts.
• Super Bowl XLI will be the ninth Super Bowl hosted in Miami since 1968 and the fourth Super Bowl to be played at 75,000-seat Dolphin Stadium.
• The Colts will make their first appearance in the Super Bowl since defeating the Dallas Cowboys 16-13 (as the Baltimore Colts) in Super Bowl V, which took place on January 17, 1971.
• The Bears return to the Super Bowl for the first time since crushing the New England Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX, which took place on January 26, 1986.
• Before Super Bowl XLI, no African American coach had ever taken a team to the Super Bowl. Both Tony Dungy, the head coach of the Colts, and Lovie Smith, the head coach of the Bears, are African American.
• The official slogan for Super Bowl XLI is “One Game, One Dream.”
• The world-famous Cirque du Soleil circus troupe will provide pre-game entertainment at Super Bowl XLI.
• The “Piano Man” himself, Billy Joel, will sing the National Anthem for Super Bowl XLI.
• Legendary Miami Dolphin quarterback Dan Marino will participate in the coin toss at the beginning of Super Bowl XLI.
• Prince is set to perform during the Pepsi Super Bowl XLI Halftime Show, where he will be accompanied by Florida A&M University’s “Marching 100” Band.
• Hall of Fame football coach Don Shula will present the Vince Lombardi Trophy to the winning team at the conclusion of the game.
• An estimated 141 million TV viewers in the United States are expected to watch Super Bowl XLI, which also will be broadcast live in more than 230 countries and territories.
• Tiffany & Co. of New York has been commissioned to make the Vince Lombardi Trophy at a cost of $25,000 (while Super Bowl rings cost $5,000).
• Each player on the winning Super Bowl team will take home $73,000, while each player of the losing team will take home $38,000.
• Future Super Bowl sites include Arizona (2008), Tampa (2009) and Miami (2010).
George
Below are some fascinating facts about Super Bowl XLI, the greatest spectacle in American sports, which will take place at Dolphin Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Sunday, February 4, 2007, and feature the National Football Conference (NFC) champion Chicago Bears vs. the American Football Conference (AFC) champion Indianapolis Colts.
• Super Bowl XLI will be the ninth Super Bowl hosted in Miami since 1968 and the fourth Super Bowl to be played at 75,000-seat Dolphin Stadium.
• The Colts will make their first appearance in the Super Bowl since defeating the Dallas Cowboys 16-13 (as the Baltimore Colts) in Super Bowl V, which took place on January 17, 1971.
• The Bears return to the Super Bowl for the first time since crushing the New England Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX, which took place on January 26, 1986.
• Before Super Bowl XLI, no African American coach had ever taken a team to the Super Bowl. Both Tony Dungy, the head coach of the Colts, and Lovie Smith, the head coach of the Bears, are African American.
• The official slogan for Super Bowl XLI is “One Game, One Dream.”
• The world-famous Cirque du Soleil circus troupe will provide pre-game entertainment at Super Bowl XLI.
• The “Piano Man” himself, Billy Joel, will sing the National Anthem for Super Bowl XLI.
• Legendary Miami Dolphin quarterback Dan Marino will participate in the coin toss at the beginning of Super Bowl XLI.
• Prince is set to perform during the Pepsi Super Bowl XLI Halftime Show, where he will be accompanied by Florida A&M University’s “Marching 100” Band.
• Hall of Fame football coach Don Shula will present the Vince Lombardi Trophy to the winning team at the conclusion of the game.
• An estimated 141 million TV viewers in the United States are expected to watch Super Bowl XLI, which also will be broadcast live in more than 230 countries and territories.
• Tiffany & Co. of New York has been commissioned to make the Vince Lombardi Trophy at a cost of $25,000 (while Super Bowl rings cost $5,000).
• Each player on the winning Super Bowl team will take home $73,000, while each player of the losing team will take home $38,000.
• Future Super Bowl sites include Arizona (2008), Tampa (2009) and Miami (2010).
George
Dec
23
Understating the Super Bowl Point Spread
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Robert Ferringo asked:
Over the weekend I was cruising around Buckhead having a few drinks with an old friend when the topic of the Super Bowl came up. He mentioned that he had asked “a guy” that he places wagers through to throw down $2,000 on Chicago for him next Sunday. But when I asked my friend what number he got the line at he looked at me like I just asked him to recite the state capitols in reverse alphabetical order.
It would seem simple enough that the No. 1 fundamental of betting the Super Bowl involves understanding the spread. However, there are still so many square bettors out there that toss out their hard-earned loot without a full appreciation or knowledge about the line that they’re playing.
Now, it’s possible that my friend was just trying to impress me. But if he really wanted to accomplish that feat he could have done so by knowing that in Super Bowl history teams favored by exactly a touchdown are just 1-4-1 ATS or that the underdog has covered in four of the last five years. That type of analysis could justify two dimes on the Bears. Nostalgia from the time you stole a hand job from a toothless ****** in the parking garage of O’Hare Airport couldn’t.
If you are going to bet on Super Bowl XLI, which will kickoff at approximately 6:20 p.m. EST on Sunday, Feb. 4 at Dolphin Stadium in Miami, you should at least have a working knowledge of what the spread is, and what it is trying to tell you.
The Indianapolis-Chicago line opened with the Colts instilled as a 7.5-point favorite. That number was quickly bet down to an even touchdown. That tells me that the sharp bettors and Windy City wise guys saw the obvious value in getting the team with the better defense above a key number and the early action was on the Bears.
(When I say “key number” I mean that seven is a statistically significant difference in the outcome of NFL games. In fact, the final score is decided by exactly seven points in approximately 7.1 percent of all games. Further, if you have Chicago at +7.5 you would have them through three “key numbers” – 3, 4, and 7 – and across differences that combine to make up approximately 43 percent of all NFL outcomes. That’s value.)
Now, it’s not surprising that the Colts are the favorite and I believe that the number is fair, though beatable from either side. The touchdown represents the fact that the AFC has clearly been the superior conference both in this season and in recent years. The AFC has won seven of the past nine Super Bowls straight up (5-3-1 against the spread) and has won 61.5 percent (118-74) of all interconference games since the start of the 2004 season.
Besides the recent conference totalitarianism, the Colts get the nod because they fit the profile of the team that the public is most likely to back. They have the more potent, fan-friendly offense. They have a recent history of success with five consecutive trips to the postseason. Additionally, the last impression that fans and gamblers have of Indianapolis was its dramatic comeback victory over New England in the AFC Title Game.
Finally, the Colts are the favorite because they hold the key to the most hyped storyline of the week: Peyton Manning. Indy becomes the sentimental favorite for the general betting public because the question of whether or not Manning will get a Super Bowl ring has been overblown to the point that its more important than our failing education system or the hypocrisy of our current Republican administration. People want to believe that this is Peyton’s time, and they’ll line up to throw their money on him in the hopes that he can vanquish over a decade’s worth of choke jobs.
Now, I’m not here to say that the Colts are the favorite in this game simply as a result of some public relations machinations. No, no. They are a veteran crew with some devastating skill players. They can score points in bunches and have some momentum, so if they do win there’s a fair chance that it will be by a double-digit margin. But what you have to keep in mind is that the Super Bowl line isn’t set according to who the books think will win the game, it’s based on who the books believe the public will play.
Which brings us to our next point. Since its initial settling, the line has held firm at -7 at most online sportsbooks. However, at two of the more prominent books (Pinnacle and BetCris) that spread has at least flirted with a stay at -6.5 due to heavy Bears action. In fact, Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently have the Colts available at -6.5. I’m not surprised to see this type of manipulation by the books and suspect it will increase as we get nearer to kickoff in order to balance the action.
Again, that’s the goal: balance the action. Traditionally, the public overwhelmingly backs the favorites in the Super Bowl. This puts the books in a kamikaze position of needing the dog to cover to avoid a massive loss. But this year may be a bit different. Because Chicago is from a major market, with a marquee defense and a strong tradition, the books may have a chance to avoid such an all-or-nothing scenario.
However, there’s also another underlying plot that should influence the line.
“It will take a lot of action for us to (move off 7), considering we’d be doing more than just moving off a key number,” a bookmaker at Bodog said in published reports. “We would also be opening ourselves to be sided by the players if we were to move off -7. If the sharps keep playing the Bears and the recreational players play them as opposed to the Colts, we may move.”
We’ve already established that seven is an important number. If the books were to lower the line to -6.5 then they would be opening themselves up to get middled. Bettors would get the Bears +7.5 and the Colts -6.5, and if Indianapolis won by exactly a touchdown the books would get hammered by having to pay out on both tickets. Therefore, if a majority of books were to move to 6.5 you would instantly be tipped off that a LOT of money was heading on the dog.
That scenario isn’t likely, but it certainly is possible. According to Wagerline.com’s calculations nearly 58 percent of all Super Bowl bets up to this point have been placed on the underdog Bears.
Danny
Over the weekend I was cruising around Buckhead having a few drinks with an old friend when the topic of the Super Bowl came up. He mentioned that he had asked “a guy” that he places wagers through to throw down $2,000 on Chicago for him next Sunday. But when I asked my friend what number he got the line at he looked at me like I just asked him to recite the state capitols in reverse alphabetical order.
It would seem simple enough that the No. 1 fundamental of betting the Super Bowl involves understanding the spread. However, there are still so many square bettors out there that toss out their hard-earned loot without a full appreciation or knowledge about the line that they’re playing.
Now, it’s possible that my friend was just trying to impress me. But if he really wanted to accomplish that feat he could have done so by knowing that in Super Bowl history teams favored by exactly a touchdown are just 1-4-1 ATS or that the underdog has covered in four of the last five years. That type of analysis could justify two dimes on the Bears. Nostalgia from the time you stole a hand job from a toothless ****** in the parking garage of O’Hare Airport couldn’t.
If you are going to bet on Super Bowl XLI, which will kickoff at approximately 6:20 p.m. EST on Sunday, Feb. 4 at Dolphin Stadium in Miami, you should at least have a working knowledge of what the spread is, and what it is trying to tell you.
The Indianapolis-Chicago line opened with the Colts instilled as a 7.5-point favorite. That number was quickly bet down to an even touchdown. That tells me that the sharp bettors and Windy City wise guys saw the obvious value in getting the team with the better defense above a key number and the early action was on the Bears.
(When I say “key number” I mean that seven is a statistically significant difference in the outcome of NFL games. In fact, the final score is decided by exactly seven points in approximately 7.1 percent of all games. Further, if you have Chicago at +7.5 you would have them through three “key numbers” – 3, 4, and 7 – and across differences that combine to make up approximately 43 percent of all NFL outcomes. That’s value.)
Now, it’s not surprising that the Colts are the favorite and I believe that the number is fair, though beatable from either side. The touchdown represents the fact that the AFC has clearly been the superior conference both in this season and in recent years. The AFC has won seven of the past nine Super Bowls straight up (5-3-1 against the spread) and has won 61.5 percent (118-74) of all interconference games since the start of the 2004 season.
Besides the recent conference totalitarianism, the Colts get the nod because they fit the profile of the team that the public is most likely to back. They have the more potent, fan-friendly offense. They have a recent history of success with five consecutive trips to the postseason. Additionally, the last impression that fans and gamblers have of Indianapolis was its dramatic comeback victory over New England in the AFC Title Game.
Finally, the Colts are the favorite because they hold the key to the most hyped storyline of the week: Peyton Manning. Indy becomes the sentimental favorite for the general betting public because the question of whether or not Manning will get a Super Bowl ring has been overblown to the point that its more important than our failing education system or the hypocrisy of our current Republican administration. People want to believe that this is Peyton’s time, and they’ll line up to throw their money on him in the hopes that he can vanquish over a decade’s worth of choke jobs.
Now, I’m not here to say that the Colts are the favorite in this game simply as a result of some public relations machinations. No, no. They are a veteran crew with some devastating skill players. They can score points in bunches and have some momentum, so if they do win there’s a fair chance that it will be by a double-digit margin. But what you have to keep in mind is that the Super Bowl line isn’t set according to who the books think will win the game, it’s based on who the books believe the public will play.
Which brings us to our next point. Since its initial settling, the line has held firm at -7 at most online sportsbooks. However, at two of the more prominent books (Pinnacle and BetCris) that spread has at least flirted with a stay at -6.5 due to heavy Bears action. In fact, Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently have the Colts available at -6.5. I’m not surprised to see this type of manipulation by the books and suspect it will increase as we get nearer to kickoff in order to balance the action.
Again, that’s the goal: balance the action. Traditionally, the public overwhelmingly backs the favorites in the Super Bowl. This puts the books in a kamikaze position of needing the dog to cover to avoid a massive loss. But this year may be a bit different. Because Chicago is from a major market, with a marquee defense and a strong tradition, the books may have a chance to avoid such an all-or-nothing scenario.
However, there’s also another underlying plot that should influence the line.
“It will take a lot of action for us to (move off 7), considering we’d be doing more than just moving off a key number,” a bookmaker at Bodog said in published reports. “We would also be opening ourselves to be sided by the players if we were to move off -7. If the sharps keep playing the Bears and the recreational players play them as opposed to the Colts, we may move.”
We’ve already established that seven is an important number. If the books were to lower the line to -6.5 then they would be opening themselves up to get middled. Bettors would get the Bears +7.5 and the Colts -6.5, and if Indianapolis won by exactly a touchdown the books would get hammered by having to pay out on both tickets. Therefore, if a majority of books were to move to 6.5 you would instantly be tipped off that a LOT of money was heading on the dog.
That scenario isn’t likely, but it certainly is possible. According to Wagerline.com’s calculations nearly 58 percent of all Super Bowl bets up to this point have been placed on the underdog Bears.
Danny
Dec
22
Green Bay Shows Up to Play in the Snow Bowl
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John Turvik asked:
The Green Bay Packers came to play Saturday afternoon in a snowy typical winter game at Lambeau Field. Going into this game the Packers where an 8 point favorite against the Seattle Seahawks which seemed like a pretty reasonable spread for the Seahawks to cover.
Free Sports Picks
The beginning of this game did not go as planned for the Packers who gave up two fumbles with in the first two possessions of the game. Both of the turnovers resulted in touchdowns for the Seahawks giving them a quick 14-0 lead. The biggest turn around in this game resulted from a D.J. Hackett fumble which was recovered by the Pack. Since that point Brett Favre took over and had a monster day going 18-of-23 pass attempts for 173 yards and 3 touchdowns against his former mentor Mike Holmgren.
The biggest disappointment from Seattle was their very poor running game which at times seemed like it wasn’t even an option in Holmgren’s offense. The team as a whole ran the ball 18 times for a combined total of 28 yards! Shaun Alexander was attacked at the line of scrimmage every time he touched the ball only getting 9 carries for 20 yards for 2.2 yards per carry. Seattle’s offensive game plan was very hard to understand at times but playing from behind like the Seahawks did most of the game will cause you to abandon the run and begin passing.
The Packers controlled the line of scrimmage all game long and looked very dominate up front. This was very relevant in their running game where rookie running back Ryan Grant had a monster game carrying the ball 27 times for an impressive 201 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Packer faithful forgot very quickly of his early two fumbles after a career game from their rookie running back.
Sports Betting
With Lambeau field looking like a snow globe, the Packers posted their biggest point total in postseason history winning the game 42-20. This was exactly the scene Brett Favre imagined when he decided to postpone retirement and try for another Super Bowl ring. The Packers (14-3) will take on the winner of Sunday’s game between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. If the Cowboys win they will host Green Bay where Favre has never won in Dallas stadium but if the Giants win the game will be held in Green Bay.
Free Sports Picks
Today’s game was a very good NFC showing by the Green Bay Packers but there is still one more obstacle in front of them before reaching the big game in Glendale, Arizona. If the Packers play like they did today they will give either Dallas or New York a real tough game and give themselves a real shot at going back to the Super Bowl for the third time in Brett Favre’s career.
Samantha
The Green Bay Packers came to play Saturday afternoon in a snowy typical winter game at Lambeau Field. Going into this game the Packers where an 8 point favorite against the Seattle Seahawks which seemed like a pretty reasonable spread for the Seahawks to cover.
Free Sports Picks
The beginning of this game did not go as planned for the Packers who gave up two fumbles with in the first two possessions of the game. Both of the turnovers resulted in touchdowns for the Seahawks giving them a quick 14-0 lead. The biggest turn around in this game resulted from a D.J. Hackett fumble which was recovered by the Pack. Since that point Brett Favre took over and had a monster day going 18-of-23 pass attempts for 173 yards and 3 touchdowns against his former mentor Mike Holmgren.
The biggest disappointment from Seattle was their very poor running game which at times seemed like it wasn’t even an option in Holmgren’s offense. The team as a whole ran the ball 18 times for a combined total of 28 yards! Shaun Alexander was attacked at the line of scrimmage every time he touched the ball only getting 9 carries for 20 yards for 2.2 yards per carry. Seattle’s offensive game plan was very hard to understand at times but playing from behind like the Seahawks did most of the game will cause you to abandon the run and begin passing.
The Packers controlled the line of scrimmage all game long and looked very dominate up front. This was very relevant in their running game where rookie running back Ryan Grant had a monster game carrying the ball 27 times for an impressive 201 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Packer faithful forgot very quickly of his early two fumbles after a career game from their rookie running back.
Sports Betting
With Lambeau field looking like a snow globe, the Packers posted their biggest point total in postseason history winning the game 42-20. This was exactly the scene Brett Favre imagined when he decided to postpone retirement and try for another Super Bowl ring. The Packers (14-3) will take on the winner of Sunday’s game between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. If the Cowboys win they will host Green Bay where Favre has never won in Dallas stadium but if the Giants win the game will be held in Green Bay.
Free Sports Picks
Today’s game was a very good NFC showing by the Green Bay Packers but there is still one more obstacle in front of them before reaching the big game in Glendale, Arizona. If the Packers play like they did today they will give either Dallas or New York a real tough game and give themselves a real shot at going back to the Super Bowl for the third time in Brett Favre’s career.
Samantha
Dec
5
Is the Super Bowl as Exciting as your Life the Clock is Ticking
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Michael Skye asked:
The Super Bowl, for millions of people, is the most exciting game in the world. Every year over 100,000 Americans gather to watch the game, many as if their lives depend on it. What does this say about us as human beings? What does this say about our values?
What if our most exciting game were the game called our life? What if creating a radically better future for our children was much more exciting than who wins on Super Bowl Sunday?
More people watched the news on 9/11 than watch the Super Bowl. How many more crises will it take for all of us to wake up and engage in the game we’re playing, simply be virtue of living in the 21st century? Terrorism, war, extreme poverty, aids, addiction, depression, global warming, pollution, crime, corruption the stakes are much higher than the Super Bowl, yet how many of us are playing as if we have the ball in our hands, and it’s up to us?
Sadly, many people do relate to the challenges we face as human beings right now as if they are but spectators, watching us all lose as time is running out.
Talk, talk, talk and more talk. Everyone talks about change. Like the armchair quarterbacks, many well-meaning, good people are talking from the sidelines of life, gossiping, criticizing and complaining about what everyone else is doing or not doing.
Consider these two important differences between the armchair quarterback watching football and the well-meaning, good person being a spectator in today’s world.
1) We’re all in this game called life. Everyone is a player, like it or not; yet so much of our team is on the sidelines, watching, cheering, whining, commenting on those who are on the field. Can you imagine a football team where most of the team is not just on the bench, but at home watching the game on TV? Can you imagine a team whose players don’t dare even play? They might contribute some money or vote on team decisions, but when it comes time to get down and dirty and play they’re nowhere to be found. Except you. Youre here to play, and you cannot deny it. Life lived from the sidelines would be death for you.
2) The armchair quarterback acts as if his yelling at the TV will make a difference, yet there is nothing he can do to affect the results of the game. We, as human beings in the game of life, often act as if our ideas or our voice won’t make a difference, yet everything we choose to do or not do affects the results of the game. Sitting at home yelling at the politician on TV instead of having your voice heard in public makes a difference in the outcome of the game. It’s a great strategy for losing the game of life. Complaining about anything and acting as if there’s not much you can do about it affects the outcome of the only game that really matters–life itself. When we chose to be an armchair quarterback in the game of life, we are choosing to lose the future we could be creating for our children.
Right now we don’t need any more good people, who mean well. Right now, the world needs great people. We need champions. But more than that, what we need is simply more people who are willing to get off the chair, turn off the TV and get out on the field. Greatness begins with the will to act.
One of the most dangerous illusions today is the notion that the people with political power rule the world and the only ones with real power to cause change. Nothing could be further from the truth. Look around you. The world you see was not created by politicians. It was created by individual entrepreneurs, artists, inventors, industrious workers, etc. Human beings have all the power we need to create a better world right now in our heads and our hearts. It is our creative, intellectual minds and heroic spirits that give us more power than all of the political and military might in the world. And yet, we so often act as if the power is outside of us.
Consider that you have the ball. You can run with it right now. You can put points on the board and affect the outcome of this game called life, not just for yourself but for your team called humanity.
The game clock is ticking A multitude of crises threaten our children’s future. Everything we value is on the line.
Are you on the field?
Annie
The Super Bowl, for millions of people, is the most exciting game in the world. Every year over 100,000 Americans gather to watch the game, many as if their lives depend on it. What does this say about us as human beings? What does this say about our values?
What if our most exciting game were the game called our life? What if creating a radically better future for our children was much more exciting than who wins on Super Bowl Sunday?
More people watched the news on 9/11 than watch the Super Bowl. How many more crises will it take for all of us to wake up and engage in the game we’re playing, simply be virtue of living in the 21st century? Terrorism, war, extreme poverty, aids, addiction, depression, global warming, pollution, crime, corruption the stakes are much higher than the Super Bowl, yet how many of us are playing as if we have the ball in our hands, and it’s up to us?
Sadly, many people do relate to the challenges we face as human beings right now as if they are but spectators, watching us all lose as time is running out.
Talk, talk, talk and more talk. Everyone talks about change. Like the armchair quarterbacks, many well-meaning, good people are talking from the sidelines of life, gossiping, criticizing and complaining about what everyone else is doing or not doing.
Consider these two important differences between the armchair quarterback watching football and the well-meaning, good person being a spectator in today’s world.
1) We’re all in this game called life. Everyone is a player, like it or not; yet so much of our team is on the sidelines, watching, cheering, whining, commenting on those who are on the field. Can you imagine a football team where most of the team is not just on the bench, but at home watching the game on TV? Can you imagine a team whose players don’t dare even play? They might contribute some money or vote on team decisions, but when it comes time to get down and dirty and play they’re nowhere to be found. Except you. Youre here to play, and you cannot deny it. Life lived from the sidelines would be death for you.
2) The armchair quarterback acts as if his yelling at the TV will make a difference, yet there is nothing he can do to affect the results of the game. We, as human beings in the game of life, often act as if our ideas or our voice won’t make a difference, yet everything we choose to do or not do affects the results of the game. Sitting at home yelling at the politician on TV instead of having your voice heard in public makes a difference in the outcome of the game. It’s a great strategy for losing the game of life. Complaining about anything and acting as if there’s not much you can do about it affects the outcome of the only game that really matters–life itself. When we chose to be an armchair quarterback in the game of life, we are choosing to lose the future we could be creating for our children.
Right now we don’t need any more good people, who mean well. Right now, the world needs great people. We need champions. But more than that, what we need is simply more people who are willing to get off the chair, turn off the TV and get out on the field. Greatness begins with the will to act.
One of the most dangerous illusions today is the notion that the people with political power rule the world and the only ones with real power to cause change. Nothing could be further from the truth. Look around you. The world you see was not created by politicians. It was created by individual entrepreneurs, artists, inventors, industrious workers, etc. Human beings have all the power we need to create a better world right now in our heads and our hearts. It is our creative, intellectual minds and heroic spirits that give us more power than all of the political and military might in the world. And yet, we so often act as if the power is outside of us.
Consider that you have the ball. You can run with it right now. You can put points on the board and affect the outcome of this game called life, not just for yourself but for your team called humanity.
The game clock is ticking A multitude of crises threaten our children’s future. Everything we value is on the line.
Are you on the field?
Annie